Politics

SMRC Survey: Prabowo's Electability Plunges to 9.8 Percent

Stateline MEDIA Newsroom•October 17, 2026•3 min read

An SMRC survey on October 1-10, 2026, shows Prabowo's electability plunging to 9.8 percent from 34.9 percent a year ago, far behind Dedi Mulyadi at 35.5 percent.

Key Facts

A national survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) titled 'President Prabowo's Electability' was conducted on October 1-10, 2026, with 1,213 respondents and a margin of error of 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
In a semi-open simulation of 24 presidential candidate names, support for Prabowo Subianto stood at just 9.8 percent in October 2026, down from 34.9 percent in November 2025.
West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi led with 35.5 percent support, followed by Anies Baswedan at 10.3 percent, Prabowo at 9.8 percent, and Gibran Rakabuming Raka at 8.4 percent.
In a head-to-head simulation of two names, Dedi Mulyadi won 69.3 percent against Prabowo's 18.8 percent, with 12 percent undecided.
The results were presented by SMRC Executive Director Deni Irvani via the SMRC TV YouTube channel on Saturday (10/17/2026).
SMRC linked the decline to public evaluation of the government's performance, economic and political conditions, and the implementation of the Free Nutritious Meals program and Red-and-White Village Cooperatives.

From 34.9 Percent to 9.8 Percent in a Year

President Prabowo Subianto's electability has plunged sharply over the past year. A national survey by Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) conducted on October 1-10, 2026, shows support for Prabowo in a semi-open simulation of 24 presidential candidate names at just 9.8 percent, far down from 34.9 percent in November 2025.

The results were presented by SMRC Executive Director Deni Irvani via the SMRC TV YouTube channel on Saturday (10/17/2026). The survey covered 1,213 respondents with a margin of error of around 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level, using a combination of phone and face-to-face interviews.

The decline was gradual. In February-March 2026 Prabowo's electability still stood at 33.3 percent, then dropped to 14.5 percent in July 2026, and now 9.8 percent in October 2026.

Dedi Mulyadi Surges to the Top

The top spot is now held by West Java Governor Dedi Mulyadi with 35.5 percent support, up from 19.7 percent in November 2025. Anies Baswedan follows in second place with 10.3 percent, while Vice President Gibran Rakabuming Raka earned 8.4 percent.

In a head-to-head simulation pitting just two names, Dedi Mulyadi won decisively with 69.3 percent against 18.8 percent for Prabowo. Twelve percent of respondents were undecided.

SMRC founder Saiful Mujani confirmed that Prabowo's declining electability trend has been consistent over the past year, while Dedi Mulyadi's electability has climbed over the same period.

SMRC Links Decline to Performance Evaluation

SMRC linked the plunge in electability to public evaluation of Prabowo's government performance in its second year. Highlighted aspects include satisfaction with the president's performance, economic and political conditions, handling of urgent issues, and the implementation of the Free Nutritious Meals (MBG) program and Red-and-White Village Cooperatives.

The survey was conducted to measure the impact of declining public satisfaction with Prabowo's leadership as the incumbent, particularly amid speculation about a re-election bid in the upcoming presidential election.