Politics

2 Years of Prabowo: Gerindra's Stability Claims vs Economic Data

Stateline MEDIA Newsroom•October 20, 2026•5 min read

Two years of Prabowo-Gibran: Gerindra claims self-reliance and stable welfare; BPS logs 5.45% H1 2026 growth and 8.07% poverty, but SMRC sees approval at 51.1%.

Key Facts

Prabowo Subianto–Gibran Rakabuming Raka was officially inaugurated on 20 October 2024; two full years of administration fall on Tuesday, 20 October 2026.
Gerindra spokesperson Sugiat Santoso (19/10/2026): two years of administration demonstrate progress in strengthening national self-reliance and public welfare — economic fundamentals remain stable, food production has strengthened, access to education and health has expanded, and downstreaming has accelerated.
BPS (Statistics Indonesia): Indonesia's economy grew 5.45 percent in the first half of 2026 and 5.29 percent in Q2 2026 year-on-year.
BPS: poverty rate stood at 8.07 percent or 22.93 million people in March 2026, down from 9.03 percent or 25.22 million people in March 2024; open unemployment rate (TPT) 4.68 percent (February 2026); average labor wage Rp 3.29 million; Gini ratio 0.368.
BPS: year-on-year inflation in September 2026 was 3.28 percent with a CPI (IHK) of 112.31 — still within the national target range of 2.5±1 percent.
Government/Gerindra: the CKG program reached 99.1 million people; MBG approximately 57 million beneficiaries as of August 2026; Sekolah Rakyat in 182 locations with around 44 thousand students; claims of self-sufficiency across eight food commodities; September 2026 Farmer Terms of Trade (NTP) reached 131.11; Danantara recorded 26 strategic projects worth Rp 225 trillion with a projected 37.833 workers.
CELIOS (released 11/10/2026): 75 percent of 1,122 respondents reported feeling stressed about government policies — major complaints included rising prices of basic necessities, difficulty finding employment, and law enforcement.
SMRC survey (1–10/10/2026): public satisfaction with government performance was 51.1 percent (July 2026), down from 81.2 percent (November 2025); satisfaction with democracy 40 percent; Prabowo's electability 9.8 percent.
Kompas.com analysis (15/10/2026): Regional Transfers decreased from Rp 857.6 trillion or 25.8 percent of state expenditure (APBN 2024) to Rp 693 trillion or around 18 percent (APBN 2026) — a nominal reduction of Rp 164.6 trillion.

Gerindra’s Claim: Self-Reliance and Stable Welfare

The Gerindra Party (Great Indonesia Movement Party) assessed that two years of the Prabowo-Gibran administration—marking exactly two years on Tuesday, October 20, 2026—demonstrated progress in strengthening national self-reliance and public welfare. The assessment was conveyed by party spokesperson Sugiat Santoso in a statement on Monday (10/19/2026).

“Two years of the Prabowo-Gibran administration show progress in strengthening national self-reliance and public welfare. This is evident from economic fundamentals that remain stable amid global volatility, strengthening food production, expanding access to education and healthcare, and accelerating downstreaming,” Sugiat said.

A similar sentiment was expressed by Menko Perekonomian (Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs) Airlangga Hartarto at the Presidential Palace on the same day: “Alhamdulillah, the situation is relatively stable, politically, economically, and socially.” The next target, he said, is higher growth and more equitable welfare.

BPS Data: 5.45 Percent Growth, Poverty Decreases

Data from BPS (Statistics Indonesia) summarized in an analysis by Kompas.com (10/15/2026) showed the economy grew by 5.45 percent in the first semester of 2026, up from 4.99 percent in the same period of 2025. The second quarter of 2026 grew by 5.29 percent year-on-year.

The poverty rate dropped from 9.03 percent or 25.22 million people (March 2024) to 8.07 percent or 22.93 million people (March 2026)—a reduction of about 2.29 million people in two years. Open unemployment edged down from 4.82 to 4.68 percent, workers' wages rose from Rp 3.04 million to Rp 3.29 million, and the Gini ratio improved from 0.375 to 0.368.

BPS recorded annual inflation in September 2026 at 3.28 percent with an IHK (Consumer Price Index) of 112.31—still within the national target range of 2.5±1 percent. Monthly inflation was recorded at 0.30 percent and core inflation at 2.84 percent.

Flagship Programs: MBG, CKG, and Food Self-Sufficiency

The CKG (Free Health Checkup) program was reported to reach 99.1 million people; MBG (Free Nutritious Meals) reached around 57 million beneficiaries as of August 2026; and Sekolah Rakyat (People's Schools) operated in 182 locations with 44,000 students.

The government claims self-sufficiency in eight commodities: rice, corn, large chili, bird's eye chili, consumption sugar, chicken meat, chicken eggs, and shallots. A total of 145 fertilizer distribution regulations were simplified and the HET (Highest Retail Price) for subsidized fertilizer dropped 20 percent since October 2025. September 2026 NTP (Farmer Terms of Trade) was recorded at 131.11—up 1.49 percent monthly.

Danantara recorded 26 strategic projects valued at Rp 225 trillion with a projection of 37,833 workers. Satgas PKH (Forestry Area Governance Task Force) regained control of 6.22 million hectares of forest areas up to October 6, 2026.

Critical Notes: Public Surveys and Fiscal Pressures

CELIOS (Center of Economic and Law Studies) alongside the Shadow Cabinet (released 10/11/2026): 75 percent of 1,122 respondents admitted to feeling stressed over government policies—the main complaints being rising staple food prices, lack of jobs, and law enforcement. Gerindra rejected the report, calling it unobjective.

Esa Unggul University observer Jamiluddin Ritonga (10/19/2026) assessed that there is a gap between government claims and public perception. The SMRC (Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting) survey from October 1–10, 2026 showed: public satisfaction dropped from 81.2 percent (November 2025) to 51.1 percent (July 2026); Prabowo's electability stood at 9.8 percent—below Dedi Mulyadi (35.5 percent) and Anies Baswedan (10.3 percent).

On the budget side, the Kompas analysis noted that Regional Transfers fell from Rp 857.6 trillion (25.8 percent of spending, 2024 APBN (State Revenue and Expenditure Budget)) to Rp 693 trillion (around 18 percent, 2026 APBN). The analysis cautioned: differences in baseline conditions and geopolitics across eras limit conclusions that all achievements were solely driven by the incumbent president.