IDX opens lower, weighed down by energy shares

The IDX Composite (Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan / IHSG) opened sharply lower in trading on Wednesday (21/10/2026). The benchmark index dropped 69.39 points, or 1.31 percent, to 5,209.5 at 09:35 WIB (Western Indonesia Time), according to Refinitiv data cited by CNBC Indonesia. This correction came a day after the IDX surged 5.65 percent on Tuesday.

Energy sector stocks served as the primary drag with a 3.1 percent drop, followed by basic materials which slid 1.8 percent. Stocks weighing on the index included BYAN, MORA, DCII, MDKA, and VKTR. Trading volume reached 90.27 million lots, with transaction value amounting to Rp5,237.63 billion.

Majority of economists forecast hike to 6.00%, some expect hold at 5.75%

The main focus for the market today is the outcome of the Bank Indonesia (BI) Board of Governors Meeting (Rapat Dewan Gubernur / RDG), to be announced Wednesday afternoon. A CNBC Indonesia Research poll of 13 institutions showed 10 expecting the BI rate to rise by 25 basis points to 6.00 percent, while three institutions forecast the policy rate to be held at 5.75 percent.

Irman Faiz, Lead Economist at Bank Danamon, projects the BI rate will rise to 6.00 percent. He cited MSCI's reclassification proposal as a game changer because investors could unwind exposure early, making anticipation of pressure on the rupiah essential. Bank Danamon even estimates the BI rate could hit 6.25 percent by the end of 2026 if external pressures persist.

Conversely, Teuku Riefky, an economist at LPEM FEB UI (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia), projects the BI rate will remain at 5.75 percent at this month's meeting, noting the central bank remains ready to respond should rupiah pressure escalate. Josua Pardede, Chief Economist at PermataBank, sees roughly a 60 percent probability of a hike versus a 40 percent chance of a hold, arguing that a 25-basis-point increase is more proportionate than an aggressive 50-basis-point move.

Shadows of MSCI and the Rp18,000 rupiah

Behind the market's retreat, the proposal by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to reclassify Indonesia's equity market from Emerging Market to Standalone Market remains the chief concern. CNBC Indonesia reported the anxiety was the primary trigger for heavy selling the previous week.

Pressures were also evident across bond and currency markets. The 10-year government bond yield reached around 7.44 percent on October 20, up roughly 137 basis points since late 2025. The rupiah traded around Rp18,000 per US dollar—standing at Rp17,987 as of October 20 and breaking past the psychological barrier again, according to CNBC Indonesia data, after weakening 8.30 percent year-to-date. Previously, BI raised rates by a cumulative 100 basis points across May and June 2026 before holding them steady for three consecutive months. Investors are now also anticipating share purchases by Danantara alongside responses from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (Bursa Efek Indonesia / BEI), the government, and Danantara regarding the MSCI announcement.

What the market awaits this afternoon

Wednesday afternoon's BI RDG announcement will determine the market's near-term trajectory. If BI raises interest rates, markets will gauge the strength of the central bank's commitment to defending rupiah stability amid the MSCI reclassification risk. Conversely, if rates are held, markets will watch for signals on BI's readiness to intervene and deploy complementary measures.

Several economists suggest that any rate increase should be paired with foreign exchange market interventions, stronger hedging incentives, and competitive yields on monetary instruments, all while macroprudential policies continue supporting financing for productive sectors. From a technical perspective, analysts at Mirae Asset Sekuritas identify IDX support levels at 5,111 and 4,907, with resistance at 5,333 and 5,597.